Yes, It Is a Buyer's Market — and the Choice That Makes It One Is Shrinking

By Naveen Vadlamudi, Real Estate Broker, Royal Canadian Realty, Brokerage

Every buyer I speak with asks the same question: is it still a buyer's market? The September numbers say yes. TREB reported 5,040 GTA sales in September 2026, down 9% year over year, at an average selling price of $1,006,409, down 5.1%. The sales-to-new-listings ratio — calculated by nesto from TREB's counts — was 30.5%, comfortably below the 40% line that separates a buyer's market from a balanced one. Inventory sat at 5.2 months.

But there is a second number in the same release, and it is the one that should set your timing.

Listings are falling faster than sales

New listings dropped 14.4% in September, to 16,500. Sales dropped 9%. Sellers are pulling back faster than buyers are. That is why the sales-to-new-listings ratio actually rose from 28.7% a year earlier even as sales fell: the supply side is retreating more quickly than the demand side.

A buyer's market does not end with a headline. It ends street by street, as the well-priced homes in good locations sell and the owners of the rest decide to wait for spring. The composite benchmark price in September was $917,600, down 4.7% — the adjustment has already happened in the data. What has not happened yet is the disappearance of choice. That part is under way.

What this means if you are buying

Shop the selection you have now, at prices set by September comparables, while sellers are still competing for you. Run your payment at today's rates — the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, and I break down what that does to a real budget here: Bank of Canada Raised Rates to 2.50% — What GTA Buyers, Sellers and Renewals Should Do Now. If a home works at today's rate and still works at 0.25% higher, the December 9 rate decision should not be what decides your purchase.

I explain the listings-versus-sales math in plain language — and why the ratio matters more than the headline average — here: 2026 New Listings vs Sales Ratio Explained.

What this means if you are selling

Price to the September comparable, not the spring hope. In a market with 5.2 months of inventory, the homes that move are the ones priced where the last similar home actually sold. My approach is simple and it does not change with the market: we price from sold data, in a range, with the reasoning shown. A right-priced home still sells in this market — September's 5,040 buyers prove the demand exists for homes priced at reality.

Buyers: tell me your budget and your area and I will show you what is actually available at September prices. Sellers: I will give you a range-based valuation from recent sold comparables, with no obligation. Either way, call (416) 837-9696.

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Naveen Vadlamudi is a Real Estate Broker with Royal Canadian Realty, Brokerage, in Markham, Ontario. In GTA real estate since 2014, he works with buyers, sellers and commercial clients across Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Toronto, Scarborough, Mississauga and Brampton.